Biased Assimilation = Bending new experiences so they fit within existing stereotypes e.g. racist views.
- Lead to overconfidence (consistently) in the truth
- Underestimating the probability they could be wrong
- Related to optimistic bias
Cognitive Bias = The processes that are used to explain irrational judgement and decision making.
- Judgements and decisions are often made on the basis of intuition rather than objective statistical information. Common errors are:
- Perceive random events are non-random, e.g. bad luck
- Perceiving correlated events as causally related
Anchoring Bias = The insufficient judgement, up or down, from an original starting value when judging the probability of events.
- Judgements raised or lowered depending on context question delivered
- Money from charities, advertising: not $500 not $400 etc
- STARTING WITH: Lower value = Lower estimate, Higher value = Higher estimate from original
- Effect of anchoring doesn't disappear even if people know the initial estimate, anchor = random, event with extreme anchors.
Availability of Heuristics = Causes individuals to judge more frequent on events that are more readily retrieved.
- Dramatic, vivid, individual cases (experience) are placed into memory, where when ready are used.
- g. People die from AIDS or asthma
- Rare = news, relies on heuristics to alter judgements
- Presents dramatic case studies than less dramatic objective facts
Representativeness Heuristic = Belonging to a particular category implies having the characteristics considered typical of members of that category.
- Asian =
- More drivers than English literature professors who read poetry is possible